1. Federal Funds Rate

The Federal Funds Rate (联邦基金利率-一天无风险利率) is the interest rate at which depository institutions (such as banks and credit unions) lend reserve balances to other depository institutions overnight on an uncollateralized basis. It serves as a key benchmark for interest rates in the U.S. economy and is closely monitored by financial markets and policymakers.

  1. Monetary Policy Tool: The Federal Funds Rate is a primary tool used by the Federal Reserve (the Fed) to implement monetary policy. By raising or lowering this rate, the Fed influences economic activity, inflation, and employment levels. A lower rate typically encourages borrowing and spending, while a higher rate can help cool down an overheating economy.
  2. Impact on Other Rates: Changes in the Federal Funds Rate affect various interest rates, including those for mortgages, loans, and savings accounts. When the Fed adjusts the Federal Funds Rate, it usually leads to changes in the rates that consumers and businesses experience.
  3. Economic Indicators: The Federal Funds Rate is influenced by various economic indicators, including inflation, unemployment, and overall economic growth. The Fed sets a target range for the rate and uses open market operations to achieve it.
  4. Influence on Financial Markets: The Federal Funds Rate can significantly impact stock and bond markets, as investors adjust their expectations based on the Fed’s interest rate policies. Changes in this rate can also influence global financial markets, given the dollar’s status as the world’s primary reserve currency.

1.1 Impact on Treasury Bonds

Bond Prices and Yields: Treasury bond prices and yields move inversely. When the Federal Reserve raises the Federal Funds Rate: Yields on Treasury bonds increase. because new bonds are issued at higher interest rates, making existing bonds with lower rates less attractive, causing their prices to drop.

Short-Term vs. Long-Term Bonds

  • Short-term Treasuries (e.g., 1-year bonds) tend to respond more quickly and directly to changes in the Federal Funds Rate, as they are more closely tied to short-term interest rates.
  • Long-term Treasuries (e.g., 10-year or 30-year bonds) are influenced not only by the Federal Funds Rate but also by inflation expectations and long-term economic growth projections. If the market expects lower inflation and slow growth, long-term bond yields may remain low even if the Federal Funds Rate rises.

1.2 Impact on Banks

Higher rates increase loan costs, can improve interest margins, but may also reduce loan demand and liquidity:

  • Lending Rates: higher Federal Funds Rate -> higher interest rates on loans.
  • Deposit Rates: When the Fed raises rates, banks may increase deposit rates to attract more savings, but they tend to do this more slowly than they increase lending rates.
  • Net Interest Margin (NIM): the difference between what banks earn on loans and pay on deposits.
    • A higher Federal Funds Rate can increase banks’ NIM in the short term, as they can raise loan rates faster than deposit rates.
    • However, if higher rates depress loan demand, it may eventually harm banks’ profitability.
  • Liquidity and Stability: When the Fed raises rates, it becomes more expensive for banks to borrow money, which can reduce liquidity in the banking system.

2. Environment Analysis

  • 上半年通胀指数下降缓慢，就业市场不稳定，降低被拖延。最近通胀下降，就业情况差，降息政策预期明朗。
  • 美联储慢加快降的分风格—以调整市场期望。
  • 关键因素：（1）美国股市；（2）美国大选；（3）美元走势。

历史市场反应：

  • 历史上，1980年后，美联储共有6次大规模降息。
  • 综合来说，会导致流动性过剩。
  • 其他国家央行大多数情况下会跟降。
    • 日本在加息周期：日元面临升值压力，对出口影响。
    • 俄罗斯加息，由于通胀大。

美联储降息 美联储于2024年9月18日宣布，将联邦基金利率目标区间下调50个基点，降至4.75%至5.00%。这是自2020年以来的首次降息，标志着美联储货币政策宽松周期（中央银行采取降低利率、增加货币供应等措施，以刺激经济增长和增加流动性）的开始。此举旨在应对美国经济和劳动力市场的疲软迹象，进一步推动通胀下降。

  • 降息的直接影响包括降低借贷成本，这将有利于刺激消费和投资，从而支持经济增长。
  • 此外，市场普遍预期美联储将在未来继续降息，这可能会导致美元进入下行趋势，其他主要货币如欧元和人民币可能因此受益。