Our company are building Mixed Reality experience for drivers and passengers in a vehicles.

  • We have two major scenarios:
    1. Augmented Reality Glass system for drivers.
      • See thought the blind area for drivers, to be more safe.
      • AR navigation assistant, to help driver better driving.
    2. Car Meta-Verse experience for passengers to enjoy Virtual Reality.
  • We have been cooperate with a hardware company. We build the software based on their devices.
  • Our software includes :
    • Car localization system, offering high frequency 6dof car poses.
    • MR localization with respect to the move car, offering 6dof poses of the MR glasses.

1. Environment Analysis

Current market is growing:

  • The market of Virtual Reality and Augmented Reality is growing. The market is 3 billons in US. A Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of over 40% between 2024 and 2036 is suggested 1.
    • In 2023, China’s AR market shipments will reach 262,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 154.4% 2.
    • But most growth are in VR and AI assistant AR. Not in real augmented reality glasses.
  • The market of Car is stable, and large. The projected revenue reaches US$549.9bn in China. With an annual growth rate (CAGR 2024-2028) of 1.07% anticipated 3.

Current Augmented Reality Glass in car market (no company is making augmented reality experiences for driver thought AR glasses) :

  • I have made a research in the history of MR in car 4.
  • Meta had been developing AR glass in car since 2022. But no further product information since then.
    • Meta’s new AR glasses focus only on AI assistant (not on augmented reality experiences).
    • Meta’s new travel mode, seems remove the dependence on car. While Meta never give publicity to application in a moving vehicle. Make us curious about their attitude towards this market.
    • Meta has just release their true AR glasses - Orion, this will be a trough technological barrier.
  • This market is still in Ferment period (in Competitive Life Circle).

Can the market grow further? Not cue! Do consumers like AR glasses in vehicles for driving assisting ? Not yet.

2. Five Forces Analysis

  1. (=) Threat of Entry. Hard to entry.
    • High sunk costs - MR glass is a very complicated system. The major technology barrier is about the lens, which cannot be used elsewhere.
    • Meta might build great competitive advantage.
  2. Threat of Substitutes.
    • (-) AR glasses user cases : We have only a few user cases, and they can be easily substituted by VR/MR glasses.
    • (+) For VR metaverse user case : we are unique!
  3. (=) Bargaining Power of Buyers. We are unique, but we are not attractive enough, our functions are not necessary for a vehicle.
  4. (-) Bargaining Power of Suppliers. They could develop the user cases with their own group.
  5. Intensity of Rivalry.
    • (+) AR: No large company, since the current market size is small.
    • (-) VR: Meta took a large majority of the market share.

3. Stakeholder Analysis

We have communicated with various stakeholders. They are interested in different fields.

  Safety Price Comfort Function Summary
Consumers ++ ++ ++ ++ every thing is important
Governments ++ = = = safety need to be ensured
MR Provider = ++ = = want to sell more devices
Automotive Company + ++ + ++ want to involve high-tech, want to sell more cars

4. Competitive Position

4.1 Competitive Position - AR

Current market problems :

  • Augmented Reality glasses sure is a cool thing, while it might need more time than we thought. (the current lens technologies cannot reach our anticipation - in FOV, weight, duration, etc).
  • Do driver need AR glasses ? Since HUD and digital screens might satisfy all needs.
  • Can (or should) driver wear AR glasses ? Since it might be dangerous, it might cause damage when car accidents, or it may distract the drivers.

As a result, in order to occupy a better position in this market, we need to overcome these problems, and be in a leading position at least for one of the fields. Let’s consider these problems :

  1. (x) Develop a better visual effect. While we are not a hardware company, without technology bases.
    • We could build a tight cooperation with a hardware company to overcome our shortage here.
  2. Find a better user case (that HUDs or digital screens cannot realize). Better understanding the consumers.
  3. We need to be both comfortable and safe.

4.2 Competitive Position - VR

Current market problems :

  • customers are not willing to wear VR glasses in vehicle, this idea is not yet attractive for them.
  • Hardware company could extend their capability to push us out. But the connection with vehicle dynamic has technological barrier.

To over come the problem :

  1. Consumer Education is vital (even it is very hard).
  2. Further develop our technology in the connection of MR and car.

5. Strategic Options

Strategic Option 1: Focus on Safety and Compliance Features
Description: Develop AR glass system primarily around safety features, such as blind spot detection, collision warnings, and navigation assistance, while ensuring compliance with automotive safety regulations.
Pros:
  • Market Differentiation: Positioning our product as a safety-first solution could attract consumers and automotive companies focused on enhancing driver safety.
  • Regulatory Support: Gaining compliance with safety regulations can facilitate partnerships with automotive manufacturers, who are increasingly focused on safety technologies.
  • Consumer Trust: Emphasizing safety can build trust and credibility with potential customers, improving adoption rates.
Cons:
  • Narrow Focus: Limiting the scope to safety features might alienate consumers looking for entertainment or immersive experiences.
  • Technological Barriers: Developing effective safety technologies can be complex and resource-intensive, potentially delaying time-to-market.
  • Competition: Established automotive safety systems (like HUDs) could limit the perceived necessity of our AR solutions.
Strategic Option 2: Partnership with Automotive Manufacturers
Description: Form strategic partnerships with automotive manufacturers to integrate our MR solutions into their vehicles, creating a seamless experience for drivers and passengers.
Pros:
  • Enhanced Credibility: Collaboration with established automotive brands can boost our company’s reputation and market visibility.
  • Shared Resources: Pooling resources with automotive manufacturers can reduce development costs and speed up the product launch.
  • Access to Customer Base: Partnering with manufacturers allows we to tap into their existing customer base and distribution networks.
Cons:
  • Dependency: Relying heavily on partnerships may limit our company’s flexibility and control over product development and marketing.
  • Complex Negotiations: Establishing and maintaining partnerships can involve complex negotiations and contractual obligations.
  • Diverging Goals: Aligning the interests of both parties may be challenging, particularly if their priorities differ from ours.
Strategic Option 3: Consumer Education and Marketing Campaigns
Description: Invest in consumer education and targeted marketing campaigns to raise awareness about the benefits of Mixed Reality technologies in vehicles, focusing on both safety and entertainment.
Pros:
  • Market Demand Creation: Educating consumers can stimulate interest and demand for MR solutions, making them more likely to adopt our products.
  • Increased Engagement: Engaging content can enhance brand loyalty and establish our company as a thought leader in the MR and automotive space.
  • Consumer Feedback: Running educational campaigns can provide valuable insights into consumer preferences and pain points, informing product development.
Cons:
  • High Costs: Comprehensive marketing and education campaigns can require significant investment and may not yield immediate returns.
  • Long-Term Effort: Changing consumer perceptions and behaviors takes time, and results may not be evident in the short term.
  • Skepticism: Potential customers may remain skeptical of the benefits of AR glasses, requiring even more effort to convince them of their value.
Strategic Option 4: Advanced Technology Development for Enhanced Mixed Reality Experiences
Description Focus on the development of advanced technology to enhance mixed reality experiences.
  1. 6DoF Localization Technology:
    • Objective: Develop real-time 6DoF localization that integrates with vehicle dynamics.
    • Benefit: Enhances safety features like blind-spot detection and navigation assistance.
  2. State Fusion to Mitigate Motion Sickness:
    • Objective: Create algorithms to reduce vertigo for users.
    • Benefit: Increases user comfort, promoting wider adoption.
  3. Adaptive Augmented Reality Rendering:
    • Objective: Optimize AR content based on user context and environment.
    • Benefit: Improves information relevance without overwhelming the driver.
  4. Real-time Environmental Analysis:
    • Objective: Use AI and computer vision to interpret surroundings.
    • Benefit: Enhances situational awareness and supports safer driving.
  5. Collaboration with Hardware Innovators:
    • Objective: Partner to develop optimized lenses and sensors.
    • Benefit: Creates cohesive MR systems tailored to user needs.
Pros:
  • Differentiates offerings, enhancing market appeal.
  • Improves user experience and safety, increasing adoption. Reduces motion sickness, broadening market reach.
Cons:
  • Requires significant R&D investment.
  • Technology may face rapid lifecycle changes.
  • Integration complexity may extend development timelines.
  • Extensive user trials needed may delay market entry.

5.5 Strategic Fusion

The four upper options each focus on a small perspective. We would like to fuse them into our final strategic option.

Our competitive position : advanced technology for enhanced mixed reality experience for vehicles. We act as bridge between hardware providers and automotive manufacturers.

  • We focus on technology to provide comfort and safe experience for users in vehicles.
    • Technology:
      • 6DoF Localization Technology.
      • State Fusion to Mitigate Motion Sickness.
      • Adaptive Augmented Reality Rendering.
      • Real-time Environmental Analysis.
      • Collaboration with Hardware Innovators.
    • Experience:
      • Gaining compliance with safety regulations.
      • Redesign for experience in car.
      • Reduce motion sickness.
  • Consumer education is necessary, we will make several light weight applications for this objective.
    • Invest in consumer education and targeted marketing campaigns to raise awareness about the benefits of Mixed Reality technologies in vehicles, focusing on both safety and entertainment.

6. Tests and Evaluations

Hypothesis:

  • Value Test: Will consumers perceive significant value in MR features that enhance safety and comfort while driving ?
    • We need more MVPs to test is assumption, as part of our consumer education process.
  • Execution Test: The technology can be feasibly developed and integrated into vehicles within a reasonable timeline and budget.
    • With our technology accumulated these years, we could ensure that.
  • Scale Test: The technology can be scaled to reach a broad consumer base, including various vehicle models and types.
    • We need to develop the technology to be available to all types of cars.
  • Defensibility Test: The technology will be difficult for competitors to imitate, providing a sustainable competitive advantage.
    • Our technology barrier is strong.

7. Summary

I propose that our company focus on developing advanced mixed reality (MR) technology for vehicles, positioning us between hardware providers and automotive manufacturers. Our strategy aims to enhance user comfort and safety through innovative applications, such as an augmented reality (AR) navigation assistant and a car localization system that offers high-frequency 6DoF car poses.

To ensure success, we will conduct a comprehensive analysis that includes a payoff matrix to evaluate potential outcomes based on technology development and consumer adoption. A real options analysis will provide insights into future investment opportunities and the flexibility to adapt our strategy as needed. Additionally, pursuing acquisition opportunities for companies with expertise in localization technology can accelerate our market entry and enhance our capabilities.

We will also engage in scenario planning to prepare for various market conditions, allowing us to adapt our approach based on consumer response and technological advancements. Consumer education will be a priority, with the development of lightweight applications aimed at increasing awareness and adoption of our MR solutions. By following this strategic option, we can establish a competitive edge in the growing MR market while ensuring a safe and comfortable experience for vehicle users.

References

  1. Mixed Reality Market Size & Share, by Component, Device Type, Application - Global Supply & Demand Analysis, Growth Forecasts, Statistics Report ↩

  2. IDC：四季度中国AR出货量历史首超VR，2023全年AR/VR出货量72.5万台 ↩

  3. Passenger Cars - China ↩

  4. AR 品牌「Rokid」与新能源车品牌「理想」合作 ↩